By David Leonhardt and Ian Prasad Philbrick | New York Times | June 3, 2024 | Photo Courtesy of Fred Ramos
AMLO’s coattails
When foreigners hear news from Mexico, it can often sound chaotic, involving cartels, crime or migration surges. But last night’s election results make clear that most Mexicans are pleased with their country’s direction.
Claudia Sheinbaum — the former mayor of Mexico City and the chosen successor of the current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador — won the presidency easily. Sheinbaum, a leftist-leaning engineer, received about 58 percent of the vote, to around 29 percent for Xóchitl Gálvez, a centrist entrepreneur, and about 11 percent for Jorge Álvarez Máynez, a progressive candidate. Mexican law restricts presidents to a single term. (Votes are still being counted, see live results here.)
In today’s newsletter, we’ll explain why most Mexican citizens have been so satisfied with López Obrador (who’s often known by his initials, AMLO) and what challenges Sheinbaum will likely face, starting with violent crime, which is indeed a major problem.
Mexico’s election matters well beyond its borders. It is virtually tied with Canada as the biggest trading partner of the U.S. In the years ahead, U.S.-Mexico trade seems likely to increase, partly because tensions with China have given American companies a reason to move production to friendlier countries.
More people are voting for leaders in 2024 than in any previous year, with dozens of countries holding elections. Taiwan, Indonesia and South Africa have already done so. Voting in India ended over the weekend, with results set to be announced tomorrow. Britain will vote on July 4, and the U.S. presidential election will be the last major one, on Nov. 5.Each country has its own dynamics, of course, but we will highlight some strands that connect Mexican politics to politics elsewhere. Regular readers of The Morning will notice a familiar theme: Populism is ascendant.
A vibrant economyThe No. 1 reason for AMLO’s popularity is the Mexican economy. Thanks both to his policies and to outside factors, incomes have risen for a broad group of Mexicans, and poverty has declined.The minimum wage has doubled since he took office, notes our colleague Simon Romero, who’s based in Mexico City. AMLO reformed labor law so that workers could more easily join independent unions. He expanded pensions. He increased the number of mandatory vacation days that workers receive. He built infrastructure, like a tourist train line in the Yucatán.
“AMLO’s popularity is always talked about as something inexplicable,” Juan David Rojas, a political analyst, told The Guardian. “But it’s very simple: He does things that Mexicans like.”
The economy has also benefited from the early stages of “friendshoring,” in which U.S. companies shift some operations from China to allied nations. Last year, the U.S. bought more goods from Mexico than China for the first time in two decades.
Us versus them
Beyond economic results, AMLO governs in a feisty style that voters seem to enjoy. “AMLO has forged a connection with many Mexican voters, which is rare in the country’s recent history,” our colleague Simon says. “He’s a combative communicator who seizes control of the narrative with a folksy, us-versus-them style.”
He cut government salaries and cracked down on corporate tax avoidance. He has taken the public bus as president, speaks in an informal version of Spanish and harshly criticizes Mexico’s economic elites, Viri Ríos, a political scientist, has noted. AMLO also increased oil production, rejecting environmental concerns.
Many democracy experts find parts of his approach to be worrisome — and connected to a global rise of autocratic behavior. AMLO is a leftist, but his governing style has similarities to those of right-wing figures like Narendra Modi in India, Viktor Orban in Hungary and Donald Trump in the U.S.
AMLO has called the judiciary “rotten” and claimed some judges were part of a conservative conspiracy “dedicated to plundering the country.” He disparages journalists whose coverage he doesn’t like and runs weekly sessions devoted to “lies.” He has given the military additional powers, including policing many parts of the country.
His reliance on the military has contributed to his biggest failure because it has been ineffective at protecting public safety. Crime has risen, and cartels control parts of the country. A Times analysis found that 36 political candidates had been killed since last summer, as had some relatives of candidates.
Sheinbaum’s résumé
As a candidate, Sheinbaum — who is a decorated climate scientist and will be Mexico’s first female president — linked herself tightly to AMLO. “Even though many Mexicans do not fully agree with our project,” she said in a victory speech, “we will have to walk in peace and harmony to continue building a fair and more prosperous Mexico.”
Sheinbaum, 61, insists that she is a different person from AMLO and will govern independently from him. She takes a more technocratic approach. As Mexico City’s mayor, she oversaw a sharp drop in crime, for example. She increased police salaries, improved training and implemented community-policing models that some U.S. cities pioneered, as Kate Linthicum of The Los Angeles Times has noted.
One early issue for Sheinbaum will involve the border. AMLO’s government has worked closely with President Biden this year to reduce migration from other countries through Mexico. (Mexico’s strong economic boom means that fewer Mexicans are trying to migrate to the U.S., Simon points out.) Biden may soon announce policies that could lead to a buildup of migrants on Mexico’s side of the border. Most analysts expect Sheinbaum to cooperate with the U.S.
She will also inherit some problems AMLO created, such as a big budget deficit. And she lacks his personal popularity. AMLO founded his and Sheinbaum’s political party, known as Morena, and then enacted popular policies as president.
As Natalie Kitroeff, The Times’s Mexico City bureau chief, has written about Sheinbaum: “Will she dare to stray from those policies if she wins office, inviting the reproach of Mr. López Obrador and the movement that got her there? Or will she dedicate herself to cementing his legacy, even if it means stifling her own vision?”
